UFC Fight Night 166 Predictions, Odds

The second UFC card of the year takes place at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina on Saturday. The card is topped with a heavyweight clash between top contender Curtis Blaydes and former champion Junior dos Santos.

Before we take a look at the main event, let’s focus on the co-main event which could deliver the biggest upset of the evening. Michael Chiesa is a +235 underdog against former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos (-275), and I consider those odds to be far too wide.

To put it plainly, RDA isn’t the same fighter that he was two-plus years ago when he’d seemingly reinvented himself after a move to welterweight. He ran off three straight wins over Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler.

However, he was outpaced by Colby Covington, and dominated by Kamaru Usman in his next two fights. Obviously, both of those guys are elite 170-pounders who can push and maintain a frenetic pace, but in my opinion, Covington broke RDA. He hasn’t looked the same since that loss.

While the Brazilian did submit Kevin Lee after the loss to Usman, I contend Lee was competing in the wrong weight class, and was exposed. RDA lost to Leon Edwards in his most recent fight via unanimous decision, and he appears a bit compromised.

On the other side, Chiesa is in the midst of the same kind of resurgence RDA experienced in 2017.

Since moving up to welterweight, he looks so much stronger and more dangerous. He has a submission win over Carlos Condit and a dominant unanimous-decision victory over Diego Sanchez.

At 6’1” Chiesa owns a 4-inch edge in height, and I believe he’ll be able to use that to his advantage in the striking department. Ultimately, he wins this match on the ground with top control, and strikes.

I also love Chiesa’s value on DraftKings.

His $7,300 is tantalizing and it opens up your lineup for some of the bigger salaries. If Chiesa gets the submission win, or a takedown-heavy decision victory, it could be the fantasy performance that puts you over the top.

The Main Event

In the featured bout, I have Blaydes defeating JDS by unanimous decision. However, I know there is a path to victory for the former champion. Blaydes needs to take this fight to the ground.

His only two losses have come to Francis Ngannou, as the American has struggled to handle his massive punching power. JDS has felt that same power, but also possesses arguably the best boxing skills in the heavyweight division. Blaydes has talked up his improvement in that area, but he’d be wise not to venture into those waters for a prolonged period against JDS.

Ultimately, I see Blaydes securing takedowns, doing some damage from the top, but mostly taking rounds based on controlling JDS on the ground.

Last week, for UFC 246, I was 8-3 with predictions correctly tabbing underdogs Drew Dober and Aleksei Oleinik as winners in their bouts.

Here is a look at the odds and predictions for the entire UFC Raleigh card.

• Curtis Blaydes (-240) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+200)
• Rafael Dos Anjos (-275) vs. Michael Chiesa (+235)
• Alex Perez (-270) vs. Jordan Espinosa (+230)
• Angela Hill (-160) vs. Hannah Cifers (+140)
• Jamahal Hill (-135) vs. Darko Stosic (+115)
• Bevon Lewis (-420) vs. Dequan Townsend (+335)
• Arnold Allen (-285) vs. Nik Lentz (+225)
• Lucie Pudilova (-175) vs. Justine Kish (+155)
• Montel Jackson (-630) vs. Felipe Colares (+465)
• Sara McMann (-155) vs. Lina Lansberg (+135)
• Tony Gravely (-115) vs. Brett Johns (-105)
• Nate Landwehr (-125) vs. Herbert Burns (+105)

DraftKings Locks

Montel Jackson

His salary of $9,400 is the highest on the card, and he’s the biggest favorite at -630. DK players who went for the fighter in his spot last week (Maycee Barber) were burned. I believe things will be back to normal on Saturday.

Jackson is a blue-chip prospect on the rise after impressive performances on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and impressive wins over Brian Kelleher and Andre Soukhamthath in his last two fights. He has speed, quickness and an excellent blend of strength and technique on the ground.

Jackson’s opponent Colares is a brawler with some sloppy entry techniques, who also has slow hands and poor stand-up defense. This one could end quickly.

Jamahal Hill

Another DWTNCS alum Jamahal Hill has a favorable matchup against Darko Stosic. Hill will enjoy a major reach advantage over Stosic, and while the former isn’t as experienced, he should have the edge in striking with his length.

Also, Stosic is a short-fight performer, meaning he’s most dangerous in the first round. He hasn’t shown great stamina, and because of his build, chances are that isn’t going to change on Saturday.

I like Hill by stoppage.

FORBES