Projections based on current trends suggest that prostate cancer diagnoses will double globally between 2020 and 2040, as per new research.
The statistics paint a picture of escalating yearly prostate cancer cases, set to soar from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million by 2040, according to projections.
Over the same period, fatalities from the illness are estimated to surge by 85%, reaching nearly 700,000 annually, predominantly affecting men in low- and middle-income nations.
The combination of aging societies and extended lifespans will result in a larger proportion of older men in the years to come.
According to the researchers, the primary risk factors for prostate cancer, such as age over 50 and a family history of the illness, are inherent and cannot be altered. Therefore, they propose that the anticipated increase in cases cannot be prevented through lifestyle modifications or public health interventions.
The Lancet Commission on prostate cancer argues that the informed choice programme for prostate cancer screening with testing, which is common in high-income countries (HICs), may lead to over-testing and unnecessary treatment in older men, and under-testing in high-risk younger men.
Instead, the authors advocate for early-detection programmes for those at high risk.
The commission also calls for urgent programmes to raise awareness of prostate cancer and for improvements in early diagnosis and treatment in LMICs.
More research involving men of different ethnicities, especially those of West African descent, is needed, the researchers say.
Prostate cancer is a major cause of death and disability, accounting for 15% of all male cancers, and is the most common form of male cancer in more than half of the world’s countries.
Read also: King Charles Pledges To Fulfill Duties Amid Cancer Diagnosis
Data suggests there were 56,780 estimated prostate cancer cases in 2020 and this is predicted to increase to 75,066 cases by 2040 (if incidence rates stay the same), a 32% increase over 20 years.
If there was a 1% decline per year until 2040, as is predicted for the Northern Europe region in the study, the predicted number in 2040 would still increase to 61,397 new cases, an 8% increase over 20 years.
With an annual 1% increase in cases, the predicted number would be 91,544 in 2040, a 61% increase over 20 years. In HICs, screening for prostate cancer often involves the PSA test, a blood test that measures levels of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA).
In numerous high-income countries, the prevailing method for diagnosing prostate cancer involves offering men aged 50 and above the option for “informed choice” PSA testing. This approach allows asymptomatic individuals to consult their physicians and request a PSA test following a thorough conversation regarding the potential advantages and drawbacks.
The commission reports indicate that this strategy may result in excessive testing among older men with low-risk profiles, without yielding a notable increase in prostate cancer detection rates among younger men facing elevated risks.
Alternatively, the authors propose a strategy involving the utilization of MRI scans alongside PSA testing for screening men at heightened risk of prostate cancer in high-income nations. This demographic includes individuals with a familial predisposition to the disease, individuals of African descent, and those with the BRCA2 mutation.
The specialists emphasize the necessity for novel strategies to facilitate earlier diagnosis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), given that the majority of men in these regions present with an advanced stage of the disease, typically characterized by metastasis to the bones. Individuals diagnosed with advanced-stage prostate cancer have significantly lower chances of long-term survival compared to those identified at an early stage.
The specialists propose that a significant obstacle to enhancing prostate cancer care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is the shortage of trained personnel and specialized facilities. Consequently, they assert the immediate necessity for implementing measures to bolster surgical and radiotherapy capabilities in these nations.