Lessons from John Paul II & Francis: Breaking the Mold
The election of Popes John Paul II in 1978 and Francis in 2013 each marked seismic shifts in Catholic history. They reflected the Church’s capacity for bold, transformative choices in moments of global change. Today, as African leadership rises in the College of Cardinals, a strategic analysis of past conclaves offers important lessons: courageous elections have repeatedly broken the mold, and Africa’s increasing prominence may well represent the next historic turning point.
In 1978, the election of Karol Wojtyła, John Paul II, shattered centuries of Italian dominance over the papacy. As La Croix International (2024) explains, his Polish origin was not simply symbolic; it signaled a turn toward confronting global atheistic communism and elevating voices from the peripheries of Europe. Similarly, Catholic News Agency (2023) observes that John Paul II’s outsider status energized the Church’s evangelical mission and reoriented its diplomatic engagements.
When Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected as Pope Francis in 2013, the College of Cardinals once again defied traditional expectations. Catholic World Report (2023) and Vatican News (2023) emphasize that Francis, a Latin American Jesuit, embodied a decisive pivot toward the Global South. His election redefined the center of Catholic identity, emphasizing pastoral outreach, humility, and a concern for marginalized communities. BBC News (2023) notes that these choices were not mere accidents but resulted from evolving conclave strategies, driven by regional alliances seeking renewal rather than maintenance of the status quo.
The lessons from these two conclaves highlight that when cardinals embrace courageous, visionary candidates, they not only elect a pope—they change the Church’s trajectory. This historic courage provides an important strategic blueprint for evaluating the current dynamics leading into the next conclave.
Today’s College of Cardinals is more geographically diverse than in the past, yet imbalances remain. As Pew Research Center (2023) outlines, the Global South—particularly Africa—continues to be underrepresented relative to its rapidly growing Catholic population. Africanews (2023) emphasizes that while Africa is home to some of the Church’s most dynamic and expansive communities, it still lacks proportional influence in conclave politics.
Nonetheless, Africa’s strategic importance is rising. Fides News Agency (2023) details how African cardinals have grown in number and stature, commanding greater attention in pre-conclave discussions and alliances. Deutsche Welle (2023) further highlights that African voices are increasingly shaping the global agenda on critical issues such as evangelization, orthodoxy, religious freedom, and social justice.
Historical precedent supports the possibility, and indeed the necessity—of bold shifts in papal leadership. Burke (2021) offers an incisive analysis of how conclave strategies evolve, noting that voting blocs from emerging regions often coalesce to promote transformative candidates when traditional powers are in decline or disarray. This model mirrors the dynamics that led to the elections of both John Paul II and Francis.
According to Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (2022), regional alliances, particularly among Latin American and African cardinals, are becoming more sophisticated. Informal gatherings, mutual consultations, and theological sympathies have fostered new political possibilities. The Pillar (2023) describes how similar alliances were crucial in the 2013 conclave, enabling cardinals from outside Europe to influence the final outcome decisively.
Yet, obstacles remain. Crux (2023) observes that residual Eurocentrism, institutional inertia, and cultural biases still shape conclave deliberations. While diversity has improved, some cardinals from Africa and Asia express concerns that systemic structures subtly disadvantage non-European candidates. National Catholic Register (2024) notes that perceptions of African leadership sometimes suffer from lingering stereotypes about ecclesiastical maturity or administrative sophistication—biases that must be consciously overcome if the Church is to be faithful to its mission of universality.
Africa’s alignment with historical conclave precedents is compelling. National Catholic Reporter (2022) points out that African Catholicism today mirrors the vitality of Eastern Europe during John Paul II’s ascent: dynamic, youthful, growing, and facing existential challenges with courage. Moreover, Jesuit Conference of Africa and Madagascar (2021) argues that African theological voices, once relegated to the margins, are now contributing decisively to global debates on inculturation, social doctrine, and moral theology.
The strategic potential for an African pope is further enhanced by demographic and spiritual realities. As Center for Global Catholicism (2021) notes, Africa will soon host one out of every four Catholics worldwide. This shift demands a corresponding transformation in papal leadership to maintain the Church’s credibility and missionary effectiveness.
The pathways to achieving such transformation, however, require more than demographic arguments. As Catholic Herald (2023) emphasizes, conclaves are ultimately driven by personal networks, theological alignments, and perceptions of leadership qualities. Thus, African cardinals must continue building alliances, articulating clear pastoral visions, and offering credible administrative competence.
Read also: Africa’s Time: A Pope For A Global Church—Part 5
Pope Francis himself has paved the way for this possibility. The Tablet (2023) states that appointing cardinals from non-traditional dioceses has diversified the electoral pool and created space for unexpected choices. According to Catholic News Service (2022), Francis’ election was the result of preparation by reform-minded cardinals who saw the necessity of globalizing Church leadership.
Thus, the historical lessons from John Paul II and Francis converge on a singular point: courageous choices at critical junctures change the Church, often in ways unimaginable at the moment of election. Today, as Africa stands poised at the cusp of greater leadership, the College of Cardinals faces a similar historic opportunity.
Choosing an African pope would not merely be a political statement; it would be a profound affirmation of Catholic universality. It would acknowledge the vibrant, faithful, and growing sectors of the Church. It would fulfill the spirit of past courageous conclaves and reaffirm the Church’s commitment to being truly global, truly missionary, and truly inclusive.
As La Croix International (2024) and Vatican News (2023) both conclude, history favors the bold. The Church’s future may once again depend on the courage to break the mold, and this time, the mold-breaking could come from Africa.
References
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