Just months after reopening America’s refugee program, the Trump administration is preparing to introduce a cap that could reshape it in striking ways. Officials say that for the year 2026, admissions will be limited to around 40,000 people — less than half the level approved in President Joe Biden’s final year in office.
Of that number, roughly 30,000 places are expected to be reserved for Afrikaners, the white, Dutch-descended minority in South Africa. Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Afrikaners would make up the bulk of the intake, reflecting a priority that President Trump has repeatedly emphasised since returning to the White House.
It is a significant shift in both scale and emphasis. Under Biden, the refugee system had been re-expanded after years of contraction, with 100,000 people resettled in his final year. Trump’s figure represents a cut — though not as steep as the historic low of 15,000 he imposed in 2021, shortly before leaving office.
What stands out this time is not only the numbers, but the focus. Within weeks of his January inauguration, Trump froze refugee admissions altogether. He soon unveiled a new, bespoke pathway for Afrikaners, describing them as victims of racial discrimination and even “genocide” in their homeland. The language marked a departure from the traditional framing of U.S. refugee policy, which has historically centred on global crises and conflicts.
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Pretoria has reacted angrily. The South African government has accused Washington of spreading misinformation and politicising migration, insisting that Afrikaners are not under threat of extermination and enjoy the same legal protections as any other group. For officials in Pretoria, the suggestion that the United States should single them out for resettlement risks distorting South Africa’s internal debates over land reform, inequality and crime.
The proposed ceiling, if confirmed, would not only reduce the overall number of admissions but also recast the moral balance of the program. For decades, the system has been presented as a cornerstone of American humanitarian leadership — a means of offering protection to people fleeing persecution in every corner of the world. Redirecting the majority of places to one community raises questions about neutrality and fairness, and is certain to spark political battles in Washington.
Supporters counter that Trump is simply delivering on his promises. They argue that the U.S. has a duty to respond to groups facing what they describe as “systematic targeting,” even if those claims are disputed abroad. For critics, however, the plan represents a narrowing of vision: a refugee system retooled for political ends.
What is clear is that the numbers tell their own story. A ceiling of 40,000 represents a dramatic reduction from Biden’s 100,000, while the proposed allocation of three-quarters of places to Afrikaners would be unprecedented in the modern history of U.S. refugee admissions.