Brasília — Brazil’s Supreme Court has delivered the most consequential ruling in its recent history, sentencing former president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for his role in what justices described as a conspiracy to overturn the 2022 election and subvert democracy itself.
The decision, announced late Thursday after days of tense deliberations, marks an extraordinary fall for the 70-year-old former army captain who once styled himself as Brazil’s answer to Donald Trump.
A majority of the five-judge panel found Bolsonaro guilty on multiple charges, including leading a “criminal organization” bent on overthrowing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his longtime political rival. Justice Cármen Lúcia, speaking firmly from the bench, said the evidence showed Bolsonaro acted “with the purpose of eroding democracy and institutions.”
Only one justice, Luiz Fux, dissented — voting to acquit Bolsonaro entirely. That lone vote may yet prove pivotal. Legal analysts warn it could open avenues for appeal, potentially dragging the fight into Brazil’s turbulent run-up to the 2026 election, in which Bolsonaro has repeatedly hinted he would be a candidate despite being barred from office until 2030.
Seven of Bolsonaro’s closest allies, including his 2022 running mate and former defense minister Walter Braga Netto, were also convicted. Among those sentenced were generals, aides, and cabinet members, underscoring the breadth of the plot.
For many in Brasília, the speed of the verdict was as startling as the punishment. “It’s extremely significant and also a surprise,” said Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman. “The justices moved quickly once the majority was established, calculating the sentence almost immediately.”
Yet the ruling does not guarantee Bolsonaro will spend the coming decades in prison. He remains under house arrest, and his lawyers are expected to pursue every remaining appeal. In Congress, loyalists have already floated an amnesty law to shield him from prison.
The fallout has stretched far beyond Brazil. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, once one of Bolsonaro’s loudest supporters, lashed out at the ruling, calling it a “witch hunt.” He announced sweeping retaliatory measures against Brazil’s judiciary — slapping 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods, sanctioning Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and revoking visas for members of the high court.
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In Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s outrage, accusing Brazil’s justices of “political persecution.”
For Brazil, the verdict lands like a thunderclap: a test of whether its fragile democracy, scarred by years of polarization and disinformation, can hold firm under the weight of a former president who still commands fierce loyalty among millions.
The immediate question is less about Bolsonaro’s fate than about Brazil’s — whether the country’s institutions can withstand both the backlash of his supporters and the strains of a democracy stretched to its limits.