Facing mounting diplomatic pressure, Guinea’s ruling junta—whose ascent to power in 2021 upended the country’s democratic trajectory, has consistently found itself on the defensive, balancing domestic discontent with external demands for a return to civilian rule.
The commitment to hold a constitutional referendum and organize credible elections by the end of 2024 was central to the junta’s initial roadmap. But as deadlines lapsed without tangible progress, skepticism among both the Guinean populace and the international community has deepened.
Despite these delays, Prime Minister Bah sought to project renewed resolve. The groundwork for the much-anticipated referendum is advancing, he insisted, describing the electoral registration drive as not merely administrative but pivotal to restoring faith in the political process. The December target for national polls now looms as a crucial test of the junta’s willingness to relinquish power and honor its transition commitments.
Guinea’s opposition, which has seen key figures taken from their homes, has previously lambasted the constitutional referendum’s announcement as a diversion.
After ousting civilian president Alpha Conde in 2021, General Doumbouya promised he would not stand in any future election.
But in recent months, several leading figures from Guinea’s ruling party have publicly backed a potential run for president by the junta chief.
In Guinea’s turbulent political landscape, the military-installed transitional charter explicitly forbids junta members from contesting future elections. Political analysts speculate that the pending constitutional overhaul could be engineered to create a lawful pathway for junta leader Colonel Mamady Doumbouya to legitimize his hold on power through the ballot box.
Read also: US Authorities Jail Son Of Ex-President Of Guinea-Bissau
As the specter of authoritarian entrenchment looms, Guinea’s opposition voices have become increasingly alarmed, accusing the military regime of intensifying its crackdown on dissent. Reports of arrests, judicial harassment, and forced exiles have multiplied in recent months, fueling fears of a deepening climate of repression.
One of the most harrowing incidents occurred in February when Abdoul Sacko, a high-profile critic of the junta, was forcibly abducted from his home in a brazen night raid. Masked assailants stormed his residence by cutting through the ceiling, only to later abandon him bruised and battered on a desolate road some 60 kilometers from Conakry. His legal team maintains that he was subjected to torture severe enough to necessitate treatment abroad.
Amid this escalating repression, the junta has outlawed public demonstrations, dismantled civic movements advocating for civilian governance, and shuttered independent media outlets by revoking their licenses—tightening its grip on information and political expression.
Guinea, since severing colonial ties with France in 1958, has endured a cycle of autocratic regimes. Despite its rich resource base, decades of oppressive leadership have left the majority of its citizens entrenched in poverty, with fleeting prospects for democratic stability or economic progress.