POLITICS
Road to 2023: 30 Influential Politicians To Watch
Nigeria’s 2023 general election is going to happen in about a year time. The incumbent-President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to hand over to a new democratically elected government by 2023. As expected, many politicians began to eye the highly exalted position even before Buhari was sworn in for a second term. While a few of these politicians have presidential ambitions public, a good number of others have been using allies to test the murky waters. Politics they say is an interesting game.
A whole lot of uncertainties have continued to bedevil analysts who have found it quite difficult to make concrete predictions. Issues such as zoning, micro-zoning and maybe electoral reforms which has largely remained unresolved have left political watchers in a limbo as to where the pendulum would eventually swing. This perhaps explains why a good number of presidential hopefuls are being overly cautious and biding their time, no one would want to put the wrong foot first in a delicate situation such as this. The interesting thing is that, 2022 would usher in something entirely different. All these presidential hopefuls must have to come public, the cards must have to be laid bare and the permutations would have to be put in motion.
As Nigerians head into 2022, one thing that is very certain is that the agitation for the presidential tickets in the two major parties, which are the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) would usher in a chain of events in the first quarter of the year which would eventually culminate in who wins the next Presidential election to become president in 2023.
Let’s take a brief walk down memory lane to put some things in their right contexts. Ever since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, we doubt if there is any elections which would be keenly contested like what we would be witnesses in 2023. From every indication, the race to 2023 would easily be the fiercest, most contested, and to some good extent the most controversial in Nigeria ever since the return of democracy.
Many political watchers would recall that in 1999, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo actually became President, not because he was popular, or a seasoned politician, in fact, it was very much permissible to classify him as a political neophyte at that time, but then again, what Nigeria needed at that point in time was a pair of steady hands supported with someone who was firm enough, someone with the right connections and necessary experience to pull the faltering ship of state away from the brinks which was partly occasioned by the evil annulment of the 1993 presidential poll which is often regarded as the best elections Nigeria has had in its inconsistent history. The truth is that, on that mandate, Obasanjo delivered. However, politics pushed him into troubled waters when his succession plans became a topic: the ugly Third Term politics, the bitter row with his streetwise Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and his eventual open endorsement of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, despite knowing his health status all left dents.
After Yar’Adua’s death, Dr Goodluck Jonathan who succeeded him would have the law the law and a few people to thank, people who insisted that the right thing has to be done. Jonathan’s presidency marked a turning point and indeed, a historic landmark for the country Nigeria, it was a clear statement that Nigeria was actually a land where dreams come through; where a man who couldn’t afford to wear shoes to school could rise to become the number one citizen in the land.
2015 ushered in the forces of an elite conspiracy and ethno-religious myopism that actually pulled off a well-oiled propaganda propelled campaign against the Jonathan presidency and eventually succeeded in booting him out of office. Yes, it was true that Jonathan’s ambition went head-to-head with the zoning arrangement in the PDP, but then, many analysts believed that, four more years for someone from a ‘minority’ ethnic group who may never get the opportunity again in centuries wouldn’t have done too much damage to Nigeria.
Jonathan was succeeded by the current President, Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari himself who is a former military Head of State had contested to be president of Nigeria a record three times – 1999, 2007 and 2011. His ‘hustle’ eventually paid off in 2015, he was catapulted into office by a naive electorate who had bought his managers’ highly enticing promise of change and hope for a better country. He became the rallying point for great expectations as at then and that was how he saw himself sitting on the Presidential seat in ‘Aso Rock’.
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The truth is that 2023 would be an entire ball game all together. From what we have seen or heard so far, there is no unified, propelling force strongly behind any of the aspirants who have so far declared interest, especially on a national scale. We are yet to see something close to the momentum that pushed Obasanjo in 1999, or the national appeal that graced Jonathan in 2011, or even Buhari’s cult-like popularity that swept everywhere in 2015. Perhaps this gives an idea of why we believe that the 2023 presidency is actually the election to watch. There are no binding agreements, concessions, or alignments. Not even zoning has been laid to rest. It is surely going to be long one.
How much of an issue would zoning be?
The 2023 presidential election is going to happen in a matter of months from now, it is not surprising that the issue of where different the major political parties would zone their presidential tickets is now on the front burner. While the All Progressives Congress (APC) which is the ruling party appears to be preparing to zone it’s ticket Southwards, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which is supposed to be zoning champion rather prefers to keep mum on the issue. For the PDP, it is even constitutional. According to many northern PDP stalwarts, the insistence of former President Goodluck Jonathan to run for Presidency against the zoning arrangement was the reason he was booted out of office. However, it is pertinent to note that some of the Northern PDP elements who want the PDP Presidential ticket to be zoned to the North might actually have a point, given the fact that they have only enjoyed about three years of power under the former ruling party.
On the other side of the divide, a number of highly influential APC governors have been advancing a southern Presidency in 2023 and even going on to give good reasons as to why the ticket should go to the South this time. Governors like Nasir El-Rufai, Umar Zulum and Bello Masari of Kaduna, Borno and Kastina States respectivel have over the last few months supported the move to have a southerner replace Buhari while adding their opinions on the zoning debate.
One thing every Politicial analyst would agree with is that Presidential elections in Nigeria has always been very sensitive. Given the fragile nature of the country and given the fault lines, several issues are usually brought to the fore. Zoning to an extent, tries to reduce these frictions by attempting to create balance.
The office of the President of Nigeria is unarguably the office that confers the highest power and influence to anybody occupying it and for this reason, it often gives an unimaginable sense of belonging to the ethnic nationality or region that produces the President. This then gives an idea of why the position is as hotly contested as it is at the moment. Ever since Nigeria gained her independence, every part of the country has been in constant struggle to mount the saddle to enjoy the cake often referred to as ‘National cake’. This struggle is the reason for the desperation and for this reason, morality has remained the obvious sandwich as far as Nigerian elections are concerned and, indeed, the upcoming 2023 presidential elections would not be an exception.
To remove to have a proper perspective that would help solve the zoning quagmire in 2023, several questions would suffice, questions like: which region of the country has produced more heads of States or Presidents ever since the country became independent? Which part of the country is yet to produce any of those? Again, looking at the delicate issue of rotational power to correcting the vexed issue of imbalance which exists among the six geopolitical zones, who’s turn is it really to produce a President in the next elections? An answer to these questions would lay some helpful background. Many people would argue that politics is a game of numbers and alliances. Yes, but then, there’s more to that.
As far as 2023 is concerned, as it stands, there is no consensus on any issue of the key issues that would decide who replaces Buhari. Some discussions are certainly going on behind the scenes now but then, there’s no concrete information yet in the public domain.
For the people of the South-East who are predominantly Igbo, the argument they have rightly been postulating is that it is their ‘turn’ to give Nigeria a President. Of course, it is a fact that no Igbo man has ever ruled Nigeria as president, Infact, since 1999 they have never been either President or Vice President. This is happening even though Igbos have been instrumental in so small measure in installing others into that highly exalted office. So, in 2023, the people advancing the Igbo Presidency agenda are doing do because they want the obvious marginalisation of Igbos to be brought to an end. They strongly believe that Igbos are not inferior to any ethnic group in Nigeria and therefore should be treated as equal stakeholders in the Nigerian project. Factually speaking, one of the most populated ethnic groups in Nigeria.
Sometime last year, many Igbos were irked the spokesmen of a prominent Northern group told them rather unequivocally that nobody is prepared to offer them the presidency on a golden platter, and hence, rather than cry of marginalisation, they should rather go and organise themselves reach consensus and then reach out to other Nigerians asking for support. As valid as the advice sounds, many Igbos have failed to fully understand it. Some Igbos believe they can be ‘given’ the Presidency just exactly the way the Yorubas were given theirs in Olusegun Obasanjo and how the late President Yar’Adua was ‘installed’ as President by his predecessor.
Moving on, the people of the North Central and North-East zones have also been advancing their arguments. For them, they’re insisting that it is their turn to produce a President, they believe that they’re yet to have their share of the largesse. The argument is that after the office of presidency should be made to go round to the six geo-political zones first, before the talk of jettisoning zoning for the principles of merit, competence, as well as knowledge can be taken rather seriously. Interestingly, these are still some the issues some other Nigerian politicians who are from other geo-political zones that have been privileged to enjoy the position and still guning again have been postulating. Sadly, they never a made a good case against zoning when the presidency lietrally fell into their laps.
It is very important that we point out that constitutional provisions as far as eligibility for running for the Nigerian presidency is concerned are clearly stated in the 1999 Constitution. There was never a place where ethnicity or geographical zone was mentioned as a criterion. What it means is that zoning is not actually a constitutionally ordained statue. But then again, Section 14(3) and (4) talks about interesting issues such as Federal Character, diversity, unity, and justice which on the face value appears to be the major tools that advances zoning. It is dicey, but it has to be laid to rest one way or the other.
Read Also: 2023: I’ll Make My Ambition Known At The Right Time – Atiku
Armed with this knowledge, the two major political parties in Nigeria have taken it upon themselves to reach a consensus on an unwritten code that would ensure a rotational presidency. Many people call it a ‘gentleman agreement’, but the truth is that given present circumstances, it is difficult to make one believe that it is not a tool for political expediency.
As the 2023 general elections draws near, Nigeria’s two main political parties which are the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) are both engulfed in some serious crises that could be disastrous or counter-productive if not handled with care. The PDP recently had its convention where it elected principal officers who would make up the national working committee (NWC) but then, it seems a number of grievances that came up in the aftermath of the convention is yet to be fully addressed. The APC on the other hand is billed to hold theirs in April and some analysts have predicted that all the gladiators would not be leaving anything to chance. In all of these shenanigans, the truth is that the common Nigerian masses seems not be factored in as there is no clarity coming from both sides as to how they could use the 2023 process to address the people’s concerns, it is not about fixing Nigeria. It is about fixing themselves into power to continue to take rape the country.
Moving on, not even the current National Assembly has shown enough serious as far as the provision of an electoral framework that would help bring in the needed trust and confidence that can inspire the Nigerian masses to see the ballot box as a veritable tool to effect changes. Just last year, the 9th assembly finally passed the amended version of the electoral bill after so much back and forth on the issue of electronic transmission of results. The legislators believed network coverage was still a major issue. Following a passage of the bill, the President has refused to sign it citing a number of issues such as cost, insecurity and logistics which many Nigerians don’t find tenable.
Finally, as far as the 2023 Presidential election is concerned, the issue of zoning has to be laid to rest or it may actually become the biggest sent on Nigeria’s unity. The perceived voting numbers in northern Nigeria often gives the region a strong hold during elections and it would be difficult to outperform a northern candidate in an election where the other bloc (South) is far from being unuted. What this means is that, Nigerians have to make up their mind on zoning and if it has come to stay, it has to become more concrete. Nigeria’s unity is fragile and if zoning is one of the things that can create balance, then it shouldn’t be discarded.
In no order, we would be profiling a list of 30 influential politicians who would play key roles in determining who assumes the seat Buhari is presently siting on. These Politicians were selected for using many indices and in fact, we strongly believe that the next President of Nigeria is comfortablly sitting somewhere on this list. Whether or not this prediction would become reality is what the next 14 months would answer. Enjoy!
- Muhammadu Buhari
Him not making this list would be very shocking to anyone who understands politics in Nigeria. In 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected for a second and final term in office courtesy of his deep rooted support from northern Nigeria, just as it has been the case in all the elections he has contested in, he generated 77% of the 15m votes he polled in that election from Northern Nigeria.
It is no longer news that the man who hails from Daura in Kastina State enjoys cult-like followership in North. Only a few northerners like Ahmadu Bello and Aminu Kano comes close in matching his popularity. His perception as an anti-corruption cezar who leaves a modest life has kept him in the hearts of Northern Nigerians. Yes, it is true that the 79-year-old would not be on the ballot for the first time since 2003, however, his influence would still be the biggest force to be reckoned with as far as the 2023 election is concerned.
As the preparations for the next presidential election which is slated to hold in February 2023 hits top gear, the big question is on the lips of every political analyst is: who is rh likely winner of the ongoing squabble to inherit the Buhari bloc vote? Yes, getting the entire votes may not be realistic, however a good percentage of this votes would be intact, and the President would most likely allow someone have it. To further explain this, Muhammadu Buhari is a politician that even opposition politicians sometimes go as far as adding his pictures to their campaign materials just to win elections.
Anybody that has been following proceedings would agree that now, President Muhammadu Buhari appears deeply entangled in a dilemma of choosing his successor. One thing is certain, would not be an easy one and as it has always been the case with him, ‘baba go slow’ would surely not allow anyone rush him. He has been keeping his cards very close to his chest and it is expected that he would deliver the masterstroke. 2022 would surely reveal to Nigerians who the President would eventually get to support.
One of the events that would help shape up this decision for President Buhari is the upcoming national convention of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) which has become long overdue haven been postponed severally. On the surface, it appears the proponents of these series of postponements have been doing so to push the uncertainties away, but the truth has remained that, rather than culminate in a drop in interest, the convention would eventually trigger regional and individual interests in the party who have been plotting their games behind the scenes. The events of the February convention would play a key role in determining who gets the blessing of the President when Nigerians go to the polls 2023.
A few days ago, the President made certain comments which can loosely be interpreted that he has made up his mind but wants to be discreet about his plans.
Again, another interesting angle to this is that, as far as politics in Africa is concerned, it is very rare to see presidents allow free will or politicking among party members to choose him a successor, going by his body language, Buhari appears prepared to take this path, however, despite all his efforts to stand above petty politicking within the APC, he is always caught up in its intricacies. This is often instigated by people who prefer dropping his name as a buffer.
Finally, Buhari would be caught in a trap. He would have to make a choice between repaying the ACN bloc in the party which is led by the former governor of Lagos State, Bola Asiwaju Tinubu for their massive support in making him President, compensating a loyal lieutenant in Yemi Osinbajo, supporting a cabal backed Goodluck Jonathan or any of the aspirants eyeing his seat. It wouldn’t be an easy decision but whatever it would be, Nigerians would find out in the coming months.
- Atiku Abubakar
Following his two previous failed attempts to pick the presidential tickets of the Social Democratic Party (PDP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1992 and 2011 respectively against the clamour for southern presidency which was popular at those times, Nigeria’s former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is gearing up to once again swim against the heavy tide and throw his heart in the ring to secure the PDP ticket for 2023 general election.
Whether or not he would be successful on his third attempt is completely down to the dynamics, but one thing is certain, his chances are great.
Atiku Abubakar is no new name to the Nigerian political scene. He is a politician, widely connected businessman and a philanthropist.
Born on 25 November 1946, the ex-official of the Nigerian Customs service is a politician with wise reach and contacts in every part of Nigeria, any time and day.
Atiku has often been criticized for his inconsistent stand on zoning. It is a known fact that he had contested the presidential primary nomination process on two different occasions when the mood of the country appearrd to be in support of a power shift to the southern part of the country.
For emphasis, in 1992, he contested for the ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and came a distant third after Chief Moshood Abiola and Ambassador Babagana Kingibe.
In 2011, he repeated the gamble by playing the same card when he sought for the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with former President Goodluck Jonathan which he lost. Some people could argue that, on those two occasions, there was no binding zoning arrangement, this people could be right in every sense of it, it is dependent on perspective.
In 2007, following series of protracted misunderstandings between him and President Olusegun Obasanjo his then boss, Atiku armed himself bwith the ticket of the Action Congress (AC) and contested the presidential election in that year with the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (PDP) and the then candidate of the All Nigeria’s Peoples Party (ANPP), Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), he gave a good account of himself in that election but failed to clinch it.
Fast forward to 2019, Turakin Adamawa as he is often referred to, managed to secure the PDP ticket against a few influential figures such as Aminu Tambuwal who was backed by the biggest fancier in PDP then, Governor, Nyesome Wike, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the then Senate President, Bukola Saraki. He ended up losing to President Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in an election that was marred by irregularities.
It is very important to state that, when Atiku contested in both the 2007 and 2019 elections when Atiku it was indeed the turn of the North to the produce the President as far as the unwritten or gentleman agreement on zoning was concerned.
Talking about not having a concrete stand on zoning, during the recent 94th National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the opposition People’s Democratic Party PDP in Abuja, Atiku argued that what Nigerians need at the moment is a President that will stand for the South and North of the country and not necessarily where the person hails from.
Read Also: 2023: Zoning Presidency To North Will Lead To Crisis – Clark
What he practically did there was to dismiss the raging debate on zoning of the party’s presidential ticket as workable solution to the leadership crisis present leadership crisis rocking the country.
Many people would recall that on that same day, the former vice President further posited that whether the 2023 presidential ticket is zoned, it has never been the cause of the country’s problem and it will it be the solution.
This statement appeared to have irked a number of politicians especially from the South-East who have proven their loyalty to the PDP in atleast five elections.
One thing is certain, those statements will come back to hurt Atiku’s 2023 ambition and at the moment, he appears more than determined to swim against the brewing tide, if his body language is anything to go by.
One thing no one can take away from the Waziri of Adamawa is that he is an astute politician of repute, and a detribalised Nigerian any time any day. He recently joked that keeping Nigeria United is possible because it has worked perfectly in his house where he has four wives – atleast one from every major ethnic nationality in Nigeria
Looking at his strengths, the former vice president is easily one of the two or say three northern politicians with contacts across the length and breadth of Nigeria any time any day. He is also a very liberal, open minded, widely trusted and tested politician with no named history of religious bigotry as many of his northern counterparts do.
Since all permutations sincere to be tilting towards having a southern President in 2023 in the interest of justice, fairness, and equity, what would happen in the next few months will settle the doubts in Atiku’s capacity to successfully swim against the tide and withstand the storm. 2023 would be a major test for the 76-year-old politician.
Within the PDP, Atiku would have to contend with several forces to clinch the ticket. It is understood that he has the backing of a number of PDP governors, however, the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesome Wike who might eventually make his Presidential plans public might be a major stumbling block. But then again, Atiku who is a dogged fighter would not fear trying one more time. His addition on this list is nothing but deserving.
- Bola Asiwaju Tinubu
The National Leader or the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has not made his perceived intention to run for the 2023 presidency public, however, his allies, friends, loyalists, supporters and body language have not managed to keep the ambition under wraps. Therefore many of his foot soldiers have embarked on early campaigns for him to succeed President Buhari as far as the 2023 election is concerned.
It is true that Tinubu, the former number one man of Lagos State, has at every forum reechoed that the time is not yet ripe for 2023 politicking in order not to distract the President, however, every Political watcher would notice that those around him have already moved to the fields and they’re not doing this without his blessings.
Many people would recall that, as soon as the 2019 elections were concluded, a Lagos based group known as Tinubu 2023 Non-Negotiable (TNN), made itself public and began vigorous campaigns for him nationwide. This was why it didn’t come as a surprise to many when a new group identified as South West Agenda (SWAGA), led by Senator Dayo Adeyeye came on board to intensify efforts, SWAGA which is made up of past and present Governors, legislators and grassroot politicians had at a political meeting called on Tinubu to throw in his hat into the ring.
Another pointer is that, recently a group of young Nigerian professionals unveiled a well-oiled political movement in Abuja with the sole mandate of working for the actualisation Tinubu’s presidential aspiration which the man from Bourdilon has continued to downplay.
The movement which was identified as Young Professionals for Tinubu 2023, presently has strong presence across the 36 states of the federation and the FCT, and it was said to have been in existence for almost two years. Surely these things would not be happening with the consent and blessings of the Lagos landlord.
Tinubu himself has just recently also recently begun a national tour, which analysts believe are surreptitious moves aimed at selling himself to Nigerians and invigorate a mass appeal for him nationwide.
The 69-year-old would have to clean himself up in the media if any positives would be expected from his ambitions. Recently there was a report that his Wikipedia profile was edited over ten times just to tamper with his year of birth. He has always been alleged to have been involved in drug dealing during his time in the US. The former Governor would also need to wash himself out of the numerous corruption scandals usually tied to his name.
Read Also: 2023: Atiku No Longer Has Age On His Side – Bala Mohammed
He surely understands that his biggest challenge to make his Presidential ambition a reality in 2023 might be to survive the intrigues within the APC, a party he helped form and build and which he still leads.
Going into 2023, he already knows his ambitions are being heavily battled against by several forces within the APC which includes high ranking Governors, Tinubu should know that he would have to overcome this threat if he would ever stand a chance of securing the party’s ticket.
One thing nobody can take away from Tinubu is his sagacity and political prowess, this is exactly why he has easily held a strong dominance on the politics of the South-West from 1999 till date. He has always been a discomforting thorn in the PDP who was a ruling party in the centre for most of those years.
Nigerians would not easily forget how he battled it out with then President Obasanjo and held his ground. Ever since he left office, he has managed to install all the governors that came after him in Lagos, till date. In fact, he has been able to replicate this in many other states right there in the South-West.
He has fought so many battles, won some and lost some. How he would manage this surging one is what many Political analysts are looking forward to., Tinubu is a very big politician to watch as far as the 2023 election is concerned.
To be continued..
AFRICA TODAY NEWS, NEW YORK