Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors grew optimistic that an anticipated meeting between the presidents of the United States and China could ease ongoing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies — and biggest energy consumers.
The gains came after a sharp sell-off last week that sent crude prices to their lowest levels in five months. Brent crude futures rose by 1.47% to $63.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.51% to trade at $59.79 a barrel. The recovery reflected renewed optimism that diplomatic engagement might stabilize global trade and energy demand.
Last week, the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing deepened when China expanded its export restrictions on rare earth minerals — materials critical to high-tech manufacturing. The United States responded swiftly, with President Donald Trump announcing plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and introduce new export controls on “critical software” by November.
However, Trump appeared to strike a softer tone over the weekend, posting that “it will all be fine,” signaling a possible willingness to negotiate. Officials have hinted that a face-to-face discussion between Trump and President Xi Jinping could still take place later this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea.
Analysts say oil markets remain sensitive to developments between the two nations, as escalating tariffs and trade restrictions could dampen global demand. “Any sign of de-escalation tends to lift market sentiment, while renewed hostility between the U.S. and China typically pressures prices,” said one energy analyst.
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Despite the uncertainty, data from China’s customs agency showed that crude imports rose 3.9% in September compared to last year, reaching 11.5 million barrels per day — the highest level of refinery activity so far this year. Analysts attribute the increase to ongoing stockpiling and improved industrial output.
Still, traders remain cautious. While diplomatic progress could support oil in the short term, many warn that unresolved trade issues, coupled with broader concerns about slowing global growth, could limit any sustained recovery in prices.