Eli Lilly has reached a milestone that once seemed unimaginable for a pharmaceutical company: a $1 trillion market valuation. It is now the first drugmaker to enter a league long dominated by tech giants, a testament to its meteoric rise in the weight-loss drug market.
A surge of more than 35 percent in Lilly’s stock this year has fueled the achievement, reflecting investors’ confidence in the company’s obesity treatments. What was once a niche segment in healthcare has grown into one of the most profitable, with demand showing little sign of slowing.
While Novo Nordisk initially led the charge in this space, Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have captured the market’s attention, surpassing its rival in prescriptions. Shares hit a record high of $1,057.70, up 1.3 percent, and the company now trades at roughly 50 times its expected earnings over the next year—one of the highest valuations in big pharma.
Since Zepbound’s launch in late 2023, Lilly’s stock has climbed more than 75 percent, outpacing the broader S&P 500, which rose over 50 percent in the same period. In its latest quarterly report, Lilly earned $10.09 billion from its obesity and diabetes portfolio—more than half of its total $17.6 billion revenue.
“They are doing many things outside obesity, but the share price is clearly being driven by this segment,” said Kevin Gade, COO at shareholder firm Bahl and Gaynor.
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Looking ahead, the weight-loss drug market is expected to reach $150 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo controlling most of the projected global sales. Investors are particularly focused on Lilly’s oral obesity drug, orforglipron, anticipated to gain approval early next year. Analysts at Citi describe the latest generation of GLP-1 drugs as a “sales phenomenon,” with Lilly poised to build on the success of its injectable predecessors.
Some see Lilly stepping back into the spotlight as one of the market’s elite performers, likening it to the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants that have driven this year’s stock rally. Yet questions remain about sustaining growth as drug prices face pressure and margins come under scrutiny. The company’s ability to scale, diversify its pipeline, and navigate competitive and regulatory hurdles will determine whether this milestone is a fleeting peak—or a new normal.