President Donald Trump has defended sweeping tariffs on goods from around the world, insisting they will create US jobs, strengthen the economy, and boost tax revenues. But exporters warn the measures are reshaping global trade—and driving key partners toward China.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, has been hit with a 50% US import tax, one of the steepest levies imposed by Washington. The move threatens to disrupt supply to American roasters, who rely on Brazil for about a third of their beans.
“This policy is pushing sellers closer to China, not weakening them,” said Hugo Portes, a supply chain specialist who trades raw coffee globally. He noted surging demand in China’s growing café culture has turned the country into “a shining light” for Brazilian exporters.
More than 180 Brazilian firms registered to export to China in July alone, an “unprecedented” shift that could reshape coffee supply chains, Mr. Portes said. Producers have also struck billion-dollar deals with Chinese brands like Luckin Coffee.
Brazilian exporter Fernanda Pizol, of Daterra Coffee, said many US buyers have paused orders while Chinese and European demand continues to climb. “We’ll need to diversify,” she added. “We already have a waiting list of buyers.”
For US consumers, the tariffs could mean higher prices. Coffee consultant Luke Waite estimates a five-pound bag of Brazilian beans could rise by 25%, pushing café prices up by as much as 7% per cup.
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India has also been swept up in Washington’s tariff drive. Alongside a 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil, the US slapped a further 25% duty on Indian exports, doubling import costs on goods like seafood and tea.
Seafood Exporters Association of India chief K. N. Raghavan said many American buyers have suspended prawn orders. “It will be a difficult time,” he admitted, though he expressed hope ongoing talks with Washington could ease the pressure.
Exporters in India are now looking to China, already the country’s second-largest seafood market, as well as Europe, where a free trade deal is under discussion. But tea trader Mohit Agarwal warned Indian firms may lose ground to African competitors offering lower prices.