POLITICS
Road To 2023: 30 Influential Politicians To Watch
Cont’d From part 1
4. Yemi Osinbajo
Professor Oluyemi Oluleke Osinbajo was born on the 8th of March, 1957 in Lagos. He is a pastor, lawyer, Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and Senior Partner at SimmonsCooper partners. The Unilag law graduate has paid his dues in the legal profession looking at his antecedents and achievements.
The current Vice President of Nigeria has over the last few years proven himself a dependable loyalist of his principal, Muhammadu Buhari. He has managed to tip toe very cleaverly through the political controversies which even formed part of his daily routine at a time. It is difficult to absolutely posit that he is the president’s man for 2023, but then again, given the politics that heralded his emergence as VP, and his journey so far with the President, it is safe to say that they have enjoyed a good working relationship. For emphasis, many people would easily recall that it was the same Buhari who has never hidden his long-held suspicion for career politicians that somehow found Osinbajo, who has also cut his teeth in grassroot politics a dependable ally and a comforting presence.
Back then in pre-2015 years, one can say that Buhari’s choice of Osinbajo as his running-mate was a strategic move. Being a pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), he naturally received the blessings of his Pastor, Adeboye as well as the endorsement and the support of almost all the Pentecostal Christians resident in the South-West. Nigeria is a deeply religious country, so this is understandable.
Again, at the time, there was the connection with Awolowo. Osinbajo has been married to one of Chief Awolowo’s granddaughters, and with this, he ticked another box when her secured the endorsement of Awolowo’s wife, after she publicly welcomed his choice as Buhari’s running mate for the 2015 elections. It is truth is regardless of how one may look at it, the choice of Osinbajo in that election won the APC an encouraging number of Christian votes in the South-West and this was what helped in matching Afenifere’s support for Jonathan to give APC an edge.
Many people would recall that in the early days of the Buhari administration, Osinbajo enjoyed the trust of the president, in fact he has continued to enjoy it. It was said that the late former leader of the Presidential cabal, Abba Kyari was somehow a stumbling block to this relationship but he is no longer around. A considerable number of people who have their ears to the ground believe that should the intricacies of the 2023 politics finally tilt to Osinbajo’s favour Buhari will not hesitate to completely throw himself into the project. Again, the unpredictability of the President can also drop the Presidency on the feets of his loyal VP.
To Osinbajo’s credit, it is without doubt that he possesses one of the most eye-catching resumes anyone can find around, added to his oratory prowess, this is often what gives him a clear quintessential posture of a leader in the 21st century and this is one thing his supporters believe would sell his ambition.
In thet last 50 years in the USA, no vice-president who had his or her sights fairly fixated on succeeding a president has failed to be nominated by their party. The reverse is the case In Nigeria because it has never happened before, the only person who might have succeeded was Alex Ekwueme but he wasn’t successful when a coup was used to oust their administration. For Atiku Abubakar, he fell out with his boss, Olusegun Obasanjo very early in their administration so the chances were close to zero.
However, it is important to point out Jonathan partly succeeded but he would have death to thank. He won the nomination of his party after his boss, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, died while still in office. Osinbajo would have to break that jinx in 2023 to stand a chance. The fact that he is yet to fall out with his boss atleast publicly means there is a good chance. Whether or not he succeeds would only be a matter of time. He is surely one of the politicians to watch in the build-up.
- Goodluck Jonathan
Anyone following recent political conversations in Nigeria would not be surprised that he is on this list. Nigeria’s immediate past President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, was born November 20th,1957 in his native Otuoke, Bayelsa State. He is a zoologist by profession and only began active politics just before the return of democracy in 1998.
Jonathan who is of the Ijaw ethnic nationality and a Christian by faith was born and raised in the region which is popular referred to as Niger Delta.
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Looking at his Politicial career, many people would recall that in the run up to the 1998 elections, the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Diepreye Alaimeyeseigha chose Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to be his running mate even when nobody gave Jonathan a chance. The Alaimeyeseigha/Jonathan ticket went on to win the elections the following year and were eventually sworn in on May 29, 1999. In 2003, their tenure was renewed after they won the April 2003 election landslide. During those times, Jonathan was widely accorded so much respect for his humility, sense of responsibility and deep sense of loyalty.
Goodluck Jonathan remained the deputy governor of Bayelsa State until sometime in December 12, 2005, his principal was ousted from office for money laundering and he was eventually sworn in as governor. Two years later, in 2007 precisely, he won the primary ticket to contest the gubernatorial election in the State and was still somewhere running his campaign when he was informed that he had been nominated to be the running mate to the PDP presidential candidate, Governor Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua. The Yar’ Adua/Jonathan joint ticket eventually went on to win the election, which was marred by widespread irregularities which Yar’Adua himself alluded to.
On May 5, 2010, President Yar’Adua unfortunately passed on and in compliance with laid down constitutional provisions, Jonathan was sworn in as substantive President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria a day after the unfortunate incident, precisely on the 6th of May 2010.
Against the laid down principles of zoning in his party, the PDP, in 2011, President Jonathan contested for the presidential primaries and defeated big wigs such as Atiku Abubakar and IBB to win the party’s nomination and then went on to be elected president as President to serve his first full four-year tenure. He went on the hold that position up until 2015 when he was overpowered by a strong and viral propaganda-propelled APC. Following the keenly contested presidential elections, to the surprise of his opponents and the whole world, he conceded victory to Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) through a phone call even while the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was still computing results. That move has been interpreted in different ways by several people, but many analysts believe that it was what saved Nigeria’s democracy or perhaps her fragile unity.
Over the last few years, many Nigerians have been left dumbfounded following the romance and brotherhood Jonathan shares with President Muhammadu Buhari. In fact, this was something no one saw coming and this is possibly why Jonathan made this list. Meanwhile, Buhari appears to have seems to have developed soft spots for Jonathan over his decision to concede defeat in the 2015 election even while his defeat was yet to be officially confirmed by the electoral body.
Many Nigerians believe that the man from Daura may consider supporting his ‘bestie’ to return to the position against the run of play. Taking about the political party under wh if that dream would be actualised, it must be Buhari’s party, the APC. Looking deeply at it, Jonathan’s sympathy for the APC is no longer new. In fact, it first became glaring back in 2019 when it was proven that he secretly supported the candidacy of the governorship candidate of the APC, David Lyon against his party’s candidate, Duoye Diri in his home State – Bayelsa. This was proven beyond doubts when following Lyon’s victory in that election, key APC leaders including highly placed serving Governors visited Jonathan to sincerely thank him for the ‘role he played’. Although the Supreme Court later nullified Lyon’s victory over a technical issue involving his running mate, Jonathan’s message was already well delivered.
Yes, it is true that should Jonathan eventually devide to bow to ‘pressure’ and contest the 2023 election, so many political isdues would arise but then again, beyond the political issues, he still has some very dicey legal obstacles on his way due to a constitutional provision which was recently passed which makes it an illegality for vice presidents who succeed their respective principals to serve more than one term. It would be down to the judiciary to interpret in due course however, it is important to recall that prior to his defeat in 2015, Jonathan had to displace a similar challenge before being allowed to contest the elections. As a result of this development, iit remains to be seen if Jonathan could be affected by this new law, or not, given the realities surrounding him.
Finally, wether or not Jonathan gets to contest the elections, one thing is certain, he would play one or two key roles in that election. His profile as a diplomat has since blossomed and his international profile skyrocketed. His endorsement could be a tie breaker and it is something what fighting for. The questions surrounding his touted come back would be answered in 2022 and he is surely one politician to watch as the 2023 elections draws near.
- Nasir El-Rufai
Governor Nasir El-Rufai is the current Governor of Kaduna State. Interestingly, he is the 22nd executive Governor of Kaduna State. Born on the 16th of February 1960, El-Rufai bagged a bachelor’s degree (First Class Honors) in Quantity Surveying from Amadu Bello University Zaria. Many people don’t quite know that El-Rufai is also an alumna of Harvard Business School as well as the Georgetown University.
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Before being elected as executive Governor in 2015, El-Rufai had served Nigeria in different capacities. Firstly, he served as the Director General of Bureau of Public Enterprises. At some point, he also served as the Head of Privatisation agency under the administration of former President, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Shortly after all of that, El-Rufai went on to serve under the same Government as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja from sometime in July 2003 to 29th May 2007 when his principal left office. Many people might recall that during his tenure as FCT minister, he was nicknamed ‘Mr. Demolition’ because of his habit of destroying illegal structures and buildings regardless of the owner.
His tenure as Governor of Kaduna State has been embroiled in quite a few controversies but one thing no one can take away from the Kaduna Governor is that he is delivering good dividends of democracy to his people in form of quality infrastructural projects.
El-Rufai is often considered a member of the Presidential cabal and he is no doubt one of the favourite Governors who has the ears of Mr. President, and this can be easily deduced from his constant shuttle to Aso Villa especially during Buhari’s first term and again, even his strategic role within the party further proves that.
On the issue of zoning, El rufai has been quite inconsistent, recently he attacked it postulating that it often gives Nigeria mediocre leaders. This is contrary to a belief he had earlier mouthed about the need to zone the 2023 Presidency to the south. El-Rufai is a man of great ambition which he backs up with scheming. Now, he is still keeping his cards close to his chest but political analysts are of the opinion that should the northern elements in the party bulldoze their way in their scheme to retain power in the north, El-Rufai would be the first name on their list.
Now, it appears that he is President Buhari’s man for the role of the Vice Presidency when a Presidential candidate finally emerges for the ruling party. 2023 is still many months away but El-Rufai is surely one politician to watch as far as determining who succeeds Buhari is concerned.
- Nyesom Wike
The incumbent Governor of Rivers State is no new name in the political arena in Nigeria. Nyesom Ezenwo Wike was born on the 13th day of December1963 in his native Rumuepirikom, Obio-Akpor, Rivers State.
By the time the next Presidential elections happen, Wike would be close to his 60th birthday. As far as age is concerned, Wike still possess enough latitude to dream big political dreams.
Wike was bred and raised in Rivers State. He obtained a Bachelor of Laws degree from the Rivers State University of Science and Technology (RSUT) back then in the early nineties. Wike also holds a master’s degree in political and Administrative Studies from the same university.
Politically speaking, Wike is a game changer. He has fought and survived many political battles which could be attributed to his sagacity and fighting spirit. Swimming in mud is never something he is shy to do, and he can cross oceans just to actualise a particular ambition.
He became the Governor of Rivers State after he fell out with his former friend and principal, Chibuike Amaechi who is the current minister of transport in Nigeria.
Looking at 2023, it is almost a certainty that Wike would be involved in one way or the other. In the last general elections, he decided to stay back in Rivers to fight and secure his second term as Governor. That wouldn’t be the case in 2023 as he would have been done with his second tenure on the 29th of May 2023. The big question this pops up is, where would Wike be in 2023?
As many of his colleagues are already accustomed to, Wike has not shown signs that he would be making the national assembly his retirement home and for this reason, it would only take a politically naïve person not to sense that Wike’s sights might be on Aso Rock.
Some analysts believe Wike might be angling to be running mate to his friends who is the the current Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, some also believe that a masterstroke with Atiku is still on the table, however, with the recent convention of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) producing a northern chairman with Wike’s blessings, you never can what Wike has up his sleeves. Whatever be the case, Nigerians would find out in 2022 when politicking heats up and for this reason, Wike’s name on this list is very much deserved.
- Kayode Fayemi
Born John Olukayode Fayemi, on the 9th of February 1965, he is a Nigerian politician who currently seats as the Governor of Ekiti State. He was sworn into office for his second term sometime in October 2018. It would be recalled that he had previously served his first tenure in office between 2010 and 2014 after which he lost his re-election to the then federal Government backed – Ayodele Fayose.
Fayemi was also President Buhari’s Minister of Solid Minerals Development from some time in November 2015 down to the 30th of May 2018, when he resigned his position to seek the office of Governor of Ekiti State.
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The soft-spoken Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum is a Yoruba by tribe, and he hails from Isan-Ekiti in Oye Local Government of Ekiti State.
Academically speaking, he has bagged degrees in History, Politics and International Relations from the University of Lagos and University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University) respectively.
It is true that Governor Kayode Fayemi has not formerly made his intentions about 2023 known, remarks recently attributed to the leader of the APC in Ekiti State suggest that the former minister of mines and steel development may be warming up to have a shot at the highly exalted office.
The Paul Omotoso-led APC caretaker committee in Ekiti State had recently endorsed the governor for the presidency in 2023.
Omotoso, who made the endorsement in a statement issued by Ade Ajayi, the APC caretaker publicity secretary, at an event disclosed that the party is prepared to drag Mr. Fayemi into the presidential race forcefully if he shows unwillingness to join the race on his own.
The statement had partly read; ‘On the 2023 presidency, the time has come for the President to come from Ekiti. That is why we are pleading with you to support Governor Fayemi’.
‘Though Governor Fayemi has never said he wanted to contest, we will force him to plunge into the race because of his competence, dedication, and loyalty to the APC,’ submitted.
Fayemi widely believed to be close to the useen hands running Buhari’s Government. Being a Christian from the Southern part of the country, he is seen as the best bet if anyone is serious about displacing the leader of the APC who is a southern Muslim in the battle for the ticket of the APC.
should Fayemi make up his mind to swim the murky waters, analysts believe that he can easily leverage on his current position as the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) to make a case for himself with the support of Governors in the ruling party. This could be be dicey anyways because he would leave office as Governor sometime in October this year. One thing is certain, he is surely one politician to watch as far as the 2023 elections are concerned.
- Peter Obi
Former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Gregory Obi was born on the 19th of July 1961. He is a Nigerian politician and astute businessman. Obi was raised in the business dominated Onitsha and he attended the popular Christ the King College, Onitsha before proceeding to the University of Nigeria Nsukka where he bagged a bachelor’s degree in philosophy in 1984.
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Obi is armed with an intimidating résumé, and this was earned due to his tenacity and zeal for knowledge and better prospects for humanity.
The Vice-Presidential candidate of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2019 Nigerian general election is a former Governor of Anambra State. He had won the elections in 2003 and had his mandate stolen, he went to the courts and recovered and then went on to serve from 17th of March 2006 to 2nd of November 2006, when he was impeached by the Anambra State House of assembly following series of disagreements and series of refusal to ‘play ball’. He went to the courts again and from 9th of February 2007, he was reinstated after his impeachment was overturned by the apex court in the land. Following his loss in the 2007 elections to the candidate of the PDP, Obi returned to the courts again, this time not to seek the overturn of the electoral results but for tenure interpretation. Again, he was successful, and the apex court ruled that he was yet to serve out his four-year term. This earth breaking declaration went on to set the pace for the staggered elections in several states in Nigeria where the courts had ousted a Governor. In line with that, Obi returned to office on the 14th of June 2007 to serve out the remaining part of his inconsistent first term. On the 6th of February 2010, he won his second term in office which he went on to serve in without distractions.
The calm ensured that he performed creditably and set excellent standards for governance in Nigeria. On the 17th of March 2014, he handed over to Willie Obiano who had earlier won the guber election in the State.
Some analysts believe that Obi might be a great public administrator but not a smart politician. It was often believed that he had the best chance to consolidate his political hold in Anambra State and the South-East with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); just like we see in people like Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the South-West; using the defunct ACN, he has failed at it for many reasons and it seems he would never learn it. Ever since he left the APGA, he has been grappling with the challenge of trying to gain his footing politically and explain things to Ndi Anambra who consider APGA ‘as their own’ just as their slogan read in local parlance.
During the last Guber election in Anambra State which was supposed to serve as a litmus test for Obi’s political sagacity, he failed to deliver his party’s candidate in the poll. That move may have put dents on his chances of laying a claim for the 2023 Presidential ticket in the PDP, however, many Nigerians are not taking things easily as the daily calls for him to run for the number one office continues to intensify with every passing day.
His sense of frugality, deep economic understanding and strong-willed power will be his major selling point should the odds eventually favour him. He is surely one of the key politicians to watch as far as the 2023 poll is concerned.
- Ifeanyi Okowa
Senator Dr. Okowa Ifeanyi Arthur was born on the 8th of July, 1959. He is a Medical Doctor by profession, and he attended University of Ibadan, where he bagged an MBBS in Medicine/Surgery in the eighties. Senator Okowa was elected as a senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (FRN) in 2011 under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (which was the then ruling party in the centre) to represent Delta North Senatorial District in the red chambers.
Before that elevation, had previously held the position of the Secretary to the Delta State Government as well as Commissioner for Health under his predecessor.
In 2015, he contested and won the Gubernatorial elections and won sworn in as Governor of Delta State under the platform of the ruling party, the peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
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Looking at his 2023 prospects, Okowa hails from a part of Delta State known as Anioma. Interestingly, a loose interpretation of Anioma in the Igbo language is good land, what this means is that it is an Igbo speaking part of the State, although the identity crisis is still a challenge. Now, by the virtue of this fact, Okowa could be assumed to be an Igbo man. So, in a way, analysts believe the quest for Igbo presidency could be fairly compensated under this agreement.
Again, looking at geopolitical consideration, Okowa, hails from the South-South region, a region that are still agitating to complete the remaining four years (one term) which they believe believe their son and former President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was denied.
The calculation is that if the dynamics tilt towards him and he becomes President, his Presidency would serve a dual purpose, which is to settle the agitation by the Igbo for the Presidency and calm frail nerves of the people of South-South region. Talk about killing two birds with a stone. Interestingly, right? Okowa is surely a man to watch as the race to 2023 builds up.
- Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi
Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi is a very strong supporter of President Buhari. He took one of the biggest political risks of his life by towing that lonely path in 2015, APC and Buhari were almost a taboo in Rivers State, but the highly courageous Amaechi stood his grounds.
Born on the 27th of May 1965, the former Governor of Rivers State has never denied eyeing the 2023 APC Presidential Ticket of the APC. The slightly controversial Minister of Transportation is a renowned grassroot politician with more than twenty years of political experience in his pocket. The Rivers State-born Politician is without doubts eminently qualified to emerge as the flag bearer of the ruling APC in 2023.
Over the last couple of months, Amaechi, has remained one of the champions of zoning as far as Buhari’s Government is concerned. He has often, emphasised the need for the APC not to discard the gentleman agreement to zone the Presidency to the South come 2023 under any circumstance. With this vociferous defense of zoning, it is easy to deduce that the former two- term Governor may be angling to replace Buhari.
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To further give credence to these reasoning, it is without doubts that Amaechi is easily one of the most visible ministers as far as Buhari’s government from its inception in 2015. You may recall that he was the Director General of the campaigns in the two times Buhari sought and won elections i.e., 2015 and 2019. This many believe might give him an edge within Buhari’s inner caucus.
If he gets the nod of the APC to contest the elections, he would be banking on his experience as a former Speaker in the Rivers State House of Assembly, a two-term governor, former chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) as well as a minister driving a critical ministry in the present Government to deliver him.
His biggest challenge yet is a lack of political base, having been swept aside by his successor and current Governor of the State, Nyesome Wike added to the disruptive wranglings within the APC in the State, Amaechi might have an issue finding a podium to stand on but then, those issues could be overlooked if he is the chosen one.
Although he is yet to formally declare interest in the Presidency, recent happenings indicate that he has his eyes firmly set on the seat and the Lion of Ubima is surely not leaving anything to chance.
- Umar Ganduje
Alhaji Umar Ganduje is the incumbent Governor of Kano State. He was elected as Governor on the 13th of April 2015, and on the 29th of May 2015, he was sworn into office.
Before 2015, Ganduje was a two-term Deputy Governor of Kano State, having served from 1999 to 2003 and then 2011 to 2015 under the administration of his former principal who he is now enemies with – Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Ganduje was born in 1949 and he hails from Ganduje village of Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State; he is a technocrat that is rarely considered as one.
Sometime in 2013, he was seen in a leaked video receiving wads of dollars from some unknown persons believed to be contractors. Despite that career denting video, he managed to get re-elected under controversial circumstances in 2019.
As the 2023 elections draw near, the 71-year-old Governor Ganduje who had recently unequivocally declared that he would not be retiring from politics soon, would surely be weighing his exit plans and future politicial aspirations.
Getting to understand what his options are matter a lot. For a start, he has not been categorical as to whether he would want to contest another election. Ganduje, who has been actively involved in politics from 1978 till date might be eyeing a seat in Abuja.
Ganduje, has oftentimes expressed his belief that the Presidential slot should be allotted to the southern region in 2023 and many believe that this could be instructive.
From his body language, his first interest maybe to play the role of a running mate to whoever emerges as the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC). One clear factor that might make this a reality is that apart from his immense contributions he has made in building the ruling party, Ganduje is widely believed to be close to all the bigwigs in the party who have indicated interest to battle it out for the Presidential ticket.
The level of influence Ganduje would have on the 2023 general elections cannot be overemphasised, and again, given the huge voter population in Kano, anyone who wants to take him for granted would be doing that at his or her own detriment.
To be continued..
AFRICA TODAY NEWS, NEW YORK