Africa is emerging as a central player in the future of global energy demand, with refined petroleum consumption expected to grow steadily for decades, according to a new outlook from the African Energy Chamber (AEC).
The AEC’s State of African Energy 2026 report projects that the continent’s refined product demand will rise from roughly 4 million barrels per day in 2024 to more than 6 million barrels per day by 2050 — a jump driven by rapid population growth, industrialisation, and widening economic activity.
The report argues that Africa should use its vast fossil fuel resources to support development in a way wealthier nations once did. To meet future demand, it urges targeted investment in refining capacity, trading networks, and cleaner fuel technologies, warning that delays could strain supply and stall economic gains.
While much of the world is accelerating its shift away from oil and gas, Africa is charting a different path. Per capita consumption across the continent, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, remains the lowest in the world, leaving significant room for expansion as incomes rise.
Demographic forces are central to this story. The continent’s population is expected to grow by more than 930 million people over the next 25 years, reaching nearly 2.4 billion — about a quarter of the global population. At the same time, Africa’s GDP could nearly triple to about $7.8 trillion by 2050, with the fastest growth coming from smaller, less developed economies.
Yet Africa today consumes less than 5% of global oil products despite accounting for 18% of the world’s population. The AEC says this gap underscores both the continent’s energy needs and its long-term economic potential.
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Gasoline demand is expected to rise sharply, even as consumption plateaus in parts of North Africa. The report forecasts that Africa will become the world’s main driver of gasoline demand growth by 2050, offsetting declines in China and across OECD countries. Nigeria is already the largest consumer on the continent, and its market is far from saturated.
Although electric vehicles and cleaner alternatives will gain ground, the report concludes that widespread adoption will lag due to weak electricity supply and limited charging infrastructure. For now, gasoline is expected to remain the backbone of mobility across much of the continent — a reality shaped as much by infrastructure constraints as by economic necessity.