New Zealand’s population growth from migration has slumped to its weakest level in over a decade outside the pandemic years, driven by a sharp decline in arrivals and an accelerating departure of citizens to Australia.

The nation recorded a net migration gain of 14,200 people in 2025, government statisticians said Friday, a drop of 9,600 from the previous year and the smallest annual increase since 2013 if pandemic-disrupted 2021 is excluded. Borders were largely sealed that year during Covid-19 restrictions.

The figure represents less than half the 25-year average of 30,600 and marks a steep reversal from the record net gain of 135,500 recorded in the 12 months through October 2023, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Departures by New Zealand citizens surged to 66,300 over the period, with 61 percent crossing the Tasman Sea to Australia. The exodus has become a central issue ahead of the country’s Nov. 7 general election, as voters and politicians grapple with concerns about wage competitiveness and living standards.

The flow of New Zealanders to Australia reflects long-standing economic disparities between the neighbors.

Higher salaries and perceived quality of life improvements have drawn workers across the border for decades, but the recent scale of departures has intensified debate about the country’s ability to retain talent.

Lawmakers face mounting pressure to address the factors driving citizens abroad. Campaign rhetoric has increasingly focused on making New Zealand more attractive to its own population, with opposition parties and incumbent officials promising measures to narrow the wage gap with Australia and improve economic conditions.

The migration data offers a mixed picture for the economy. While the drop in net arrivals may ease pressure on housing and infrastructure, it also raises questions about labor supply in key sectors and the sustainability of economic growth.

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Tourism figures provided some offsetting relief. Overseas visitor arrivals climbed to 3.51 million in 2025, the first annual period to surpass 3.5 million since the year ending March 2020, before international travel collapsed during the pandemic. The rebound in tourism has bolstered service industries and regional economies reliant on foreign spending.

New Zealand’s migration patterns have fluctuated significantly over the past two decades, shaped by policy changes, economic cycles, and global events. The recent decline follows years of elevated arrivals that strained housing markets and public services in major cities, particularly Auckland.

Government officials have adjusted visa settings multiple times in response to shifting labor market conditions.

Skilled worker programs and temporary visa categories expanded during periods of strong economic growth but have faced scrutiny as unemployment rose in some sectors.

The election campaign has highlighted competing views on migration’s role in New Zealand’s economy. Some candidates argue the country should prioritize retaining and attracting skilled workers, while others contend that lower net migration could alleviate pressure on housing affordability and public infrastructure.

Australia’s relative economic strength has long made it a preferred destination for New Zealanders seeking career advancement. Citizens of both countries enjoy reciprocal rights to live and work across the border without requiring visas, a policy framework that facilitates movement but complicates efforts to stem departures.

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The wage differential between the two nations has widened in recent years, particularly in sectors such as healthcare, construction, and information technology. Australian employers have actively recruited New Zealand professionals, exacerbating labor shortages in certain industries back home.

Statistics New Zealand compiles migration data by tracking border movements and residency intentions declared by travelers. The figures capture both permanent and long-term arrivals and departures, defined as stays of 12 months or more.

Political parties contesting the November election have proposed various measures to address the migration imbalance. Proposals include tax incentives for skilled workers, increased public sector wages, and infrastructure investment aimed at improving living conditions.

The outcome of the election may influence future migration policy settings, though economists note that broader economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and employment opportunities, will likely continue to drive individual decisions about whether to stay or leave.

New Zealand’s population stands at approximately 5.3 million. Net migration fluctuations can significantly impact demographic trends, particularly given the country’s relatively small population base compared with Australia’s 26 million residents.

The next set of migration statistics is scheduled for release later this year and will provide updated data on cross-border movements in the months leading up to the election.