President Donald Trump asserted Thursday that he must approve Iran’s choice of a new supreme leader, an ambition that appears divorced from the reality of how Tehran’s clerical establishment operates and the geopolitical constraints Washington faces despite its military advantage.
Trump told Axios he found Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the supreme leader killed Saturday in an Israeli airstrike—unacceptable and warned the United States would likely be at war with Iran again within five years if someone he considers unfavorable takes power.
He did not explain how he would insert himself into a selection process controlled by an assembly of senior Shiite clerics who have spent decades opposing American influence.
“Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy,” Trump said, referencing Venezuela, where interim president Delcy Rodriguez has cooperated with Washington under threat of violence after American forces seized her predecessor Nicolas Maduro in a January 3 raid.
The comparison to Venezuela suggests Trump believes he can compel Iranian compliance through similar pressure, though the two situations differ fundamentally.
Venezuela’s government collapsed after Maduro’s capture, leaving Rodriguez isolated and vulnerable to American demands. Iran’s power structure remains intact despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, with military, intelligence and clerical networks still functioning and united in opposition to foreign interference.
Iran’s constitution assigns the Assembly of Experts—a body of 88 senior clerics—responsibility for choosing a supreme leader. That group is dominated by figures who built their careers on anti-American rhetoric and have no incentive to accommodate Trump’s preferences. The president was raised Presbyterian and has no standing in the theological debates that will shape Iran’s succession.
Whether Trump’s remarks signal genuine intent to influence the process or reflect posturing designed for domestic consumption remains unclear. His statement that he wants “someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran” implies willingness to work with a figure from within the existing system rather than pursuing regime change, a shift from traditional American policy toward Tehran.
Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah overthrown in the 1979 revolution, has proposed returning as a transitional leader to oversee drafting of a new secular constitution. He said Thursday that any supreme leader chosen through Iran’s current system would lack legitimacy. But Pahlavi commands no military force and has lived in exile for decades, making his return contingent on a collapse of Iran’s government that has not occurred.
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Mojtaba Khamenei, who ran his father’s office and maintained close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, is considered among the strongest candidates to succeed. His elevation would ensure continuity with the hardline policies Ali Khamenei pursued for 36 years, including repression of dissent and confrontation with neighboring countries. That continuity is precisely what Trump says he opposes.
The late supreme leader died when American and Israeli forces launched attacks across Iran, escalating tensions that had simmered for months. His son’s potential succession has become entangled with the ongoing conflict, as Iran’s temporary leadership council manages both military operations and the process of selecting a permanent replacement.
Trump’s reference to Rodriguez in Venezuela reveals his preferred model for dealing with adversaries: force followed by compliance extracted through threats. After US troops seized Maduro, Rodriguez agreed to demands benefiting American oil companies and other interests.
Trump has said he was pleased by her cooperation, which came under explicit warnings that further violence would follow if she resisted.
Iran presents obstacles Venezuela did not. Its military remains capable of striking American assets across the region and disrupting global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Its alliances with Russia and China complicate any attempt to isolate it diplomatically.
And its clerical system, built over four decades to resist foreign pressure, has no equivalent to the fragile civilian government Trump toppled in Caracas.
The president’s insistence on involvement in Iran’s succession suggests he views the current crisis as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East’s balance of power. Whether he has the tools to achieve that goal or whether his demands will harden Iranian resistance remains uncertain.
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Ali Khamenei was Iran’s second supreme leader after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 revolution. The position carries authority over all state institutions and serves as final arbiter on matters of national security, making the succession decision one of the most consequential Iran has faced since the Islamic Republic’s founding.
Trump did not specify what actions he might take if Iran chooses a leader he considers unacceptable. His warning of renewed war within five years implies he sees military confrontation as likely regardless of who assumes power unless that person meets criteria he has not fully articulated.
The Assembly of Experts could take weeks or months to select a successor. During that period, Iran’s temporary council will make decisions about military operations, nuclear policy and diplomatic engagement. How those choices affect the succession and whether external pressure influences the outcome will determine if Trump’s assertion of authority over Iran’s internal affairs carries any weight beyond rhetoric.