A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is raising the prospect that airlines could soon face fuel shortages severe enough to disrupt flight schedules, particularly across Asia and Europe, where reliance on Gulf energy supplies remains high. The risk is no longer theoretical.
As oil shipments through the narrow passage remain largely halted following military escalation in the region, concerns are mounting within the aviation and energy sectors that jet fuel inventories could tighten within weeks if flows are not restored.
“The situation can, within the next three to four weeks, become systemic,” Claudio Galimberti said on CNBC, pointing to the speed at which supply disruptions could ripple through global markets.
“So you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe, already starting in May and June,” he warned.
Some disruptions have already begun to surface.
Galimberti noted that flight cancellations linked to fuel constraints are occurring, although European authorities have so far stopped short of declaring an immediate shortage. A spokesperson for the European Commission said there was currently no confirmed deficit across the bloc.
“There is no evidence for fuel shortages in the European Union at present,” spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said, while conceding that “supply issues could occur in the near future, in particular for jet fuels.”
The timing of any disruption remains uncertain, but industry groups are working with increasingly narrow margins.
The Airports Council International Europe has warned that shortages could begin within three weeks if tanker traffic does not resume, placing early May as a potential inflection point. That assessment reflects the extent to which Europe depends on refined products originating from the Gulf.
Before the current conflict, roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since late February, however, shipping activity has been severely curtailed after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, triggering a broader regional confrontation.
The disruption has tightened supply chains that operate with limited slack.
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The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has also cautioned that Europe could face shortages of jet fuel “maybe beginning of May”, reinforcing concerns that stockpiles may not be sufficient to absorb a prolonged interruption.
The agency’s latest monthly report offers a slightly longer timeline but underscores the same risk.
“If the global jet fuel market tightens further and European markets are unable to secure more than 50 percent of their lost Middle East volumes, then stocks will hit the crucial 23-day level in June,” the IEA said, highlighting how quickly reserves could fall toward critical thresholds.
That scenario depends heavily on how different countries are positioned.
Japan, while highly dependent on imports, has accumulated significant reserves that may cushion the impact. Across Europe, the picture is uneven. Countries such as Austria, Bulgaria and Poland are considered to have relatively comfortable stock levels, while Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands are more exposed. France sits somewhere between those extremes. The strain will not be evenly distributed across the aviation sector either.
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“Smaller, inland located airports will be in a weaker position than the main hubs,” Rico Luman said, suggesting that logistics and storage capacity will shape how disruptions unfold.
“It won’t be a matter of full halt, but part cancellation at some airlines and airports,” he added.
Airlines are already grappling with limited visibility.
The industry group Airlines for Europe has urged European authorities to provide real-time data on jet fuel availability at airports, arguing that better information is essential for planning schedules and managing capacity. However, fuel suppliers have shown reluctance to share commercially sensitive data, complicating efforts to coordinate a response.
Energy companies are also signalling growing strain.
TotalEnergies has warned that it may not be able to meet all customer demand if the disruption persists into June. Chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said the duration of the crisis would be decisive.
“If this war and this blockade last more than three months, we’ll begin to face some serious supply issues in some products like jet fuel,” he said.
Some in the industry are exploring contingency measures.
Airlines for Europe has proposed that regulators temporarily allow imports of jet fuel from the United States, where production standards differ slightly from those typically used in Europe. Such a move would require regulatory flexibility and logistical coordination that are not currently in place.
Political constraints and supply chain limitations make rapid substitution difficult, leaving airlines dependent on existing reserves and any incremental supplies that can be sourced outside the Gulf. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the narrower those options become.